Recession May Foil Expectations

Why a U.S. Recession May Foil Economists’ Expectations “Many classic indicators of a recession are exactly where they were at the…” You may have heard that Germany has slipped into a recession. What you may not have heard is, the German government anticipated an economic uptick in Q1, not a slide. Reality failing to meet READ MORE

Pension Fund Crisis

Is a Pension Fund Crisis Next? “U.S. pension funds are on the brink of implosion” Did you get a heads-up from the financial media that the U.S. banking system was vulnerable before the failures of Silicon Valley, Signature and First Republic banks? There may have been outlier articles here and there but no real warnings. READ MORE

Your Bank: Early Warning

Your Bank: “Use This as an Early Warning Signal” First Republic Bank “customers had pulled $100 billion in deposits in the first quarter” More dramatic news on the banking front. On April 25, investors in the shares of First Republic Bank were hit hard (The New York Times): First Republic Bank Enters New Free Fall READ MORE

Advisors Take Heat

Financial Advisors Take Heat for Market Losses (Will Anger Intensify?) Was 2022 an aberration for the 60/40 allocation? Many financial advisors steer clients who are willing to take some risk toward a 60% stocks / 40% bonds portfolio. Alas, investors who followed that strategy in 2022 saw the value of their portfolios decrease substantially. In READ MORE

Pressure on Banks will Rise

Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate and “The Everything Bust” “The pressure on banks will rise” The phrase “Everything Bust” means a bust in just about every financial risk-asset of which you can think, as well as the economy and, I dare say, the financial system itself. Indeed, in a section titled “The Everything Bust Is on READ MORE

FDIC and Your Bank Deposits

The Shocking Truth About the FDIC and Your Bank Deposits Why you can’t rely on the FDIC if your bank goes under Editor’s note: The failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Bank have many observers of the banking system discussing the possibility of contagion. Even so, many depositors feel safe because their deposits are READ MORE

Foreign Buyers Jump Into Stocks

Overseas Buyers Scoop Up U.S. Shares (Bullish or Bearish)? “No crowd buys stocks of other countries intelligently” The fact that investors from other countries are feverishly buying U.S. stocks might seem like a bullish sign. On the other hand, consider what Robert Prechter said in his book, Prechter’s Perspective: No crowd buys stocks of other READ MORE

Double Top in Natural Gas

Natural Gas: Here’s What Happened After a “Double Top” A key technical pattern warns of a reversal It probably won’t be a surprise to you that Elliott Wave International is an advocate of technical analysis. After all, the Elliott wave method is a form of technical analysis. You probably know that the term “technical analysis” READ MORE

Sentiment Offer Clues About What is Next

Stocks: How Sentiment Measures Offer Clues About What’s Likely Next Insights into the stock market as a fractal Elliott Wave International’s analysts track dozens of indicators, and our U.S. Short Term Update pays particular attention to those which may offer clues about the near-term. Consider this analysis from the Sept. 26 U.S. Short Term Update, READ MORE

Elliott Waves in Individual Stocks

Yes, Elliott Waves Work with Individual Stocks — Here’s How “The primary value of the Wave Principle is that it provides a context for market analysis” Elliott waves reflect the repetitive patterns of mass psychology — so they are ideally suited for analyzing the widely traded main stock indexes. On the other hand, thinly traded READ MORE

Most Miss Market Turns

Why Most Investors Are “Doomed” to Miss Major Market Turns “The arrows show how conventional futurists approach forecasting” The reason why most investors miss key turns in financial markets is that they linearly extrapolate a trend into the future. If a market is going down, these investors expect that market to continue to go down READ MORE

NFT Crash

Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs): Another Financial “Fumble” NFTs have taken “a round trip to nowhere” Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quarterback Tom Brady is a non-fungible token (NFT) enthusiast. However, glory on the football field has not translated to this field of finance (Business Insider, August 8): Tom Brady bought a Bored Ape NFT for $430,000 in April. READ MORE

Foreign Interest Peaks in Housing

The Final Act BEFORE a Housing Bubble Bursts Here’s a time-tested indicator of trend turns in financial markets Financial history shows that feverish foreign buying of a financial asset usually marks the end of that asset’s upward trend. The reason why is that foreign buyers tend to enthusiastically jump on a trend after it’s already READ MORE

Euro is on Sale

Europe On Sale: Get It While U Can On July 13 and 14, the euro and the U.S. dollar briefly traded at parity — for the first time in 20 years. Just 19 months ago, EURUSD was at $1.2350. It’s quietly dropped 20%+ since. Quietly? Yeah, because of all the other fireworks in the market READ MORE