Forecasting the Stock Market

No Crystal Ball but Logical Reasoning

When buy and hold rules, everybody forgets about market timing. After all why bother? It goes up and up all the time, right? Well, few contrarians pointed out the danger down the road, but it was hard to hear their voice in the mainstream media.

Among them was Robert Prechter, “the man who makes people so afraid”. Watch the instructive videos below to appreciate the excellent work he has done in analyzing the financial markets and warning us in advance. Robert Prechter predicted the 80s bull market in 78, forecasted 87 crash weeks before, and authored the bestseller “Conquer the Crash” in 2002 to warn people against the pending credit crisis and deflationary collapse. He called the 2007 top and gave a short signal for S&P 500 which he covered days before the 2009 bottom which was in March for a 900 point profit.

Watch and learn, listen carefully where he thinks you should put your money in October 2007:

Notice the correct advice to average investor: Go to cash and USD cash equivalents (Short term treasury bonds). His deflation prediction came to be true despite excessive FED intervention.

Another very instructive talk:

Pt. 1: Robert Prechter at New Orleans Investment Conference – 2007

Pt. 2: Robert Prechter at New Orleans Investment Conference – 2007

Pt. 3: Robert Prechter at New Orleans Investment Conference – 2007

Conquer the Crash predicted the downturn in 2002 and explained in detail how to the dominos would fall one after the other. According to Prechter, the deflationary crash is not over yet.