Category: Economy

Here’s What You Need to Know About Earnings Season Investing based on earnings “is akin to driving down the highway looking only in the rearview mirror” Many investors and financial journalists believe that corporate earnings play a substantial role in driving stock market prices. This headline from a few months ago captures the traditional thinking READ MORE

This Trend Is Up a Whopping 10,240% Since March 2021 How millionaires are handling financial uncertainty On March 1, 2021, the 6 Month Treasury Bill Rate was a measly 0.05%. The March 2021 Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which covers major financial and social trends, said: If the rise in interest READ MORE

Want to “Intimidate Everybody”? Be a Bond Market Back in October 2021, we showed subscribers a chart of the “Bond Universe” — ALL bonds, from around the world, in ONE chart. Since then, as yields spiked and prices fell, the bond market has indeed been “intimidating everybody.” Watch our monthly Global Market Perspective contributor, Murray READ MORE

Why a U.S. Recession May Foil Economists’ Expectations “Many classic indicators of a recession are exactly where they were at the…” You may have heard that Germany has slipped into a recession. What you may not have heard is, the German government anticipated an economic uptick in Q1, not a slide. Reality failing to meet READ MORE

Is a Pension Fund Crisis Next? “U.S. pension funds are on the brink of implosion” Did you get a heads-up from the financial media that the U.S. banking system was vulnerable before the failures of Silicon Valley, Signature and First Republic banks? There may have been outlier articles here and there but no real warnings. READ MORE

Your Bank: “Use This as an Early Warning Signal” First Republic Bank “customers had pulled $100 billion in deposits in the first quarter” More dramatic news on the banking front. On April 25, investors in the shares of First Republic Bank were hit hard (The New York Times): First Republic Bank Enters New Free Fall READ MORE

Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate and “The Everything Bust” “The pressure on banks will rise” The phrase “Everything Bust” means a bust in just about every financial risk-asset of which you can think, as well as the economy and, I dare say, the financial system itself. Indeed, in a section titled “The Everything Bust Is on READ MORE

The Shocking Truth About the FDIC and Your Bank Deposits Why you can’t rely on the FDIC if your bank goes under Editor’s note: The failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Bank have many observers of the banking system discussing the possibility of contagion. Even so, many depositors feel safe because their deposits are READ MORE

Food and Gas Prices: Is the Rising Trend (Finally) Ending? The Elliott wave structure of a key commodity ETF provides a clue. Consumers around the globe are wondering when they will finally see some relief from rising prices at the gas pump and grocery store. It’s difficult for these consumers to get a handle on READ MORE

Oil at $130: Look Beyond Supply and Demand “War” is the answer that only gets you so far Most everyone knows that oil and gasoline prices have been soaring, and this steady climb started well before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The upward trend began in April 2020, when oil prices briefly went negative, and it’s continued READ MORE

The Stunning Truth About the FDIC and Your Bank Deposits Why you can’t rely on the FDIC if another financial crisis hits and your bank goes under. Millions of U.S. bank depositors feel safe in the knowledge that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation will protect their accounts, even if their bank goes under. Yes, it’s READ MORE

Here’s What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) See “powerful evidence that the Fed is not in control of interest rates” Most everyone is familiar with the phrase: “Keep your eye on the ball,” which of course means — focus on what really matters. Those who seek clues about the direction of interest rates READ MORE

Global Investing: Here’s the Message of Consumer “Overconfidence” Bear markets tend to follow this particular sentiment. In many global regions, economies are flourishing. For example, here are two headlines about the U.S.: What America’s Startup Boom Could Mean For The Economy (npr.com, June 29) Inflation Rose in June as Economic Recovery Continues (WSJ, July 13) READ MORE

Look at These 2 Big Warning Signs for the U.S. Economy. Interestingly, this economic measure’s “retracement of the decline from February is a Fibonacci 61%”. The 7.4% GDP growth in Q3 notwithstanding, the evidence shows that the U.S. economy remains fragile. Let’s start off with this chart and commentary from the November Elliott Wave Financial READ MORE