Bullish Case for Gold

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Gold Will Lead a Multi-Decade Commodities & Miners Bull Market says Analyst Mark Galasiewski

  • Mark’s Elliott wave analysis tells him that Gold, Gold miners are only in the middle of their big 3rd wave. This should take Gold much higher before a major turn.
  • While Gold leads the commodity bull market higher, US economy will have a decades long decline. S&P 500 and the US dollar will underperform.
  • Emerging markets are likely to have their bull markets during this time.
  • China, Chinese Yuan are likely starting their bull markets, similar to Japan back in their heyday.

The Elliott Wave structure of Gold could look like this in the future according to Mark:

If that is true, it would mean that the Gold bull run has much more to go.

Mark Galasiewski of Elliott Wave International discusses the outlook for gold, commodities, emerging markets, and stocks based on long-term Elliott Wave technical patterns.

Key Points

Gold and Commodities

  • Entering a multi-decade commodity bull market led by gold.
  • Gold is currently in a powerful “third of a third” wave phase.
  • Short-term corrections possible, but long-term outlook remains strongly bullish.
  • Commodity markets ended a 40-year bear market around 2020, starting a major new uptrend.
  • Long-term rise in interest rates expected alongside commodities.

Miners (GDX, SIL)

  • Gold and silver miners are breaking out from contracting triangle patterns, signaling major upside potential.
  • Miners expected to strongly outperform as part of the commodity bull cycle.

Emerging Markets

  • A shift is happening from intangible assets (tech, crypto) to tangible assets (commodities, emerging markets).
  • Emerging markets will benefit from the commodity supercycle.
  • China could lead emerging market outperformance; the yuan is positioned for a major strengthening.

US Stocks and Bitcoin

  • The InfoTech era is ending; a long bear market is forecasted for tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.
  • NASDAQ 100 has likely completed a long-term 5-wave advance and faces a “lost decade.”
  • Bitcoin is seen as representing intangible assets and could experience a massive collapse.

US Dollar and Global Shifts

  • The US dollar has likely ended its long-term bull cycle and is beginning a major decline.
  • A falling dollar historically correlates with emerging market outperformance.
  • The end of “US exceptionalism” and the rise of emerging markets are key future themes.

Philosophy and Methodology

  • Elliott Wave analysis is based purely on mass psychology and price patterns, avoiding fundamentals or politics.
  • Price action drives narrative, not vice versa.
  • The model is predictive and forecasts major long-term trends using fractal patterns.

Conclusion

  • Gold, commodities, and emerging markets offer major opportunities over the next few decades.
  • Tech stocks, cryptocurrencies, and US dominance are entering long-term bear phases.
  • Understanding mass psychology and price patterns is key to navigating the coming shifts.

The transcript of the video is as follows:

GDX and SEL are about to explode to the upside in a third wave it just doesn’t
0:14
make any sense So the better interpretation is probably that gold is also exploding in a third of a third
0:20
wave continuing to lead the miners higher you will look back you know decades from now and say “Yeah that was
0:26
a commodity bull market and gold was leading it the entire time.” In today’s show you’re going to hear from an
0:32
analyst that believes we’re facing a multi-deade gold le commodity bull
0:38
market Joining me is Mark Galashevki He is with Elliot Wave International Mark
0:43
thanks for coming on the show and you’re going to walk us through some slides You’re going to lay out from a chartist
0:48
technical perspective why you believe this is the case Please take it away Okay great Uh thank you Bill Thanks for
0:54
having me on the show Uh my name is Mark Galashevki and uh I’m the editor of the
0:59
AsianPacific Financial Forecast at Elliot Wave International which is a US-based publishing company And um my uh
1:06
publication again Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast I’ve introduced to my subscribers at the end of last year in
1:13
October a thesis that I call the end of the infoch era and the rise of emerging markets And basically in a nutshell it
1:20
is that the infoch sector which uh we can consider you know the NASDAQ 100 the MAG 7 stocks but even cryptocurrencies
1:27
because they have it’s basically an offshoot you know a byproduct of of the infoch sector um are coming to the end
1:34
of their investable uh era of the past 15 years And at the same time what’s
1:39
happening it already began in the year 20 uh20 and that is uh the rise of um
1:46
the commodity markets and uh interest rates In fact both of these asset classes are in super cycle advances and
1:53
the transition between the period is is happening before our eyes right we’re seeing uh infoch the NASDAQ 100 has
2:00
recently crashed and we’re still waiting for the fall of of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrencies markets But basically
2:06
the writing is on the wall that the new trend for the future over the over the next 10 years and probably longer
2:12
perhaps even a few decades is going to be tangible assets not intangible assets infoch but uh tangible assets and so
2:20
therefore gold uh which is leading the commodity bull market um is a great
2:25
indicator of what’s going to be happening and of course emerging markets one of my specialties as focused on Asia
2:32
and such is um also going to come along ong for the ride So there therefore I’m calling my thesis the end of the infoch
2:38
era and the rise of emerging markets and u if you don’t mind if you if unless you have any questions about that uh
2:45
overview and and feel free by the way to ask me any questions because um I’m sure
2:50
if you have questions many people in uh your audience will also have questions as well That sounds great Mark Okay
2:56
great thanks Bill Uh so without further ado let’s get to the charts Uh here we have um on the top GLD uh as a
Gold
3:04
indicating gold um and two other asset classes again MXI the eyeshares global
3:09
materials ETF uh ETF of commodity producers and EM on the bottom the
3:14
Eyesshares MSEI emerging markets ETF gold’s breakout in 2024 was probably as
3:21
significant for the rest of this group uh and for commodities as a whole as was
3:26
the NASDAQ’s breakout in 2012 and the rise of of course Bitcoin in 2009 So um
3:33
and it’s an exciting time You can see that these asset classes the producers of course you know gold the the
3:39
inflation indicator and emerging markets have ebbed and flowed with each other for for a very long time You can see
3:45
just in the past uh you know 15 years or so here But um but over time as we’ll
3:50
see later um you know a a great move up in in commodities is also a great move
3:55
up in in um emerging markets emerging market stocks So um without further ado
Elliott wave principle
4:01
let’s get to our methodology At Elliot Wave International we we base our our forecasts on um patterns long-term
4:09
patterns short-term patterns that were discovered by a man named Ralph Nelson Elliot He called his p his discovery the
4:15
wave principle at the time but in in retrospect we now the industry now knows it as um uh Elliot waves or Elliot wave
4:24
um analysis And um the basic idea that again Elliott was an American accountant
4:31
in the depression He was charting the Dow Jones Industrial Average uh by hand And in in a process of doing that he
4:38
discovered there were um prices patterns that repeated over and over again that different degrees of trend different
4:44
degrees of magnitude smaller and and longer term Um and uh to to show you an
4:51
example of that here we have what most people understand to be an Elliot wave right you’ve got a fivewave advancing
4:57
pattern labeled with numbers uh labeled uh 1 2 3 4 and 5 followed by a
5:03
three-wave corrective pattern or regressive pattern labeled with letters A B C and
5:10
um this pattern has a feature of it is that every uh basic Elliot wave pattern
5:15
is it not only has subwaves but it also is a subwave to a larger pattern So in
5:21
this case um this fivewave advancing pattern followed by a three-wave correction is the initial up down
5:27
sequence within a much larger advancing fivewave pattern And you can see here
5:32
that this you know advance this up down sequence has become um the fivewave
5:37
pattern to a larger pattern followed by the corrective And you can imagine that at one degree higher there would be uh
5:44
another um developing wave right in in circle wave uh wave 1 and two that would
5:49
be followed by an explosive move to the upside in a blue wave three up after the
5:54
end of this uh wave what we would call wave five of of C of two down and so
6:00
that would be headed higher next and of course Elliot didn’t have the terminology at the time but we now know
6:06
this uh idea of embedded fractal or sorry patterns that are embedded inside
6:11
of each other that are similar to each other we now know it as a fractal right in this case a self- similar fractal and
6:18
um as an example of uh how to use this knowledge this uh discovery of Elliots
6:25
um I’m going to show you uh something here from India this is my first few months on the job during the global
6:31
financial crisis of 2008 here I was looking at and again you know just bear
6:36
with me for a moment I’m talking about Indian stocks But the pattern and the relationships I’m about to tell you uh
6:42
and show you are very relevant to our discussion of commodities and later of gold So uh please bear with me on that
6:48
But here we have in 2008 in the belly of the beast global financial crisis I was
6:54
looking at this chart as you can now and you can see that there is a five-wave pattern that had played out from the
7:00
2003 low down here up to the 2008 high and and then a three-wave decline down
7:06
to that global financial crisis low at the time And um here is the analysis I
7:11
published then um here it is that the market is a fractal the fivewave advance
7:16
Another feature of this pattern was the self similarity of this uh correction right and the advance as well compared
7:22
to the prior uh wave 1 and two You can see that in the red box you’ve got a
7:27
wave 1 and wave two and that was very similar to the larger wave 1 and two from 2003 to 2008 down to the 2008 low
7:35
Both of these second waves retraced approximately 50% um of the uh the prior
7:42
advance the wave their wave 1 uh equivalence and as did this uh you can see this one down here retrace 50% and
7:49
so therefore I was looking uh and I forecast an explosive move in what we would call a third wave to the upside
7:55
right and here it was I forecasted quote Indian stocks are about to begin primary wave three of the bull market that began
8:01
in 2003 and let’s look at the subsequent price action Since then you know here we are um Indian stocks are about to begin
8:08
primary wave three of the bull market that began in 2003 and look at the explosive move after that here several
8:15
months later after the retest of the low successful and the follow-through on the upside I had the this this pattern and
8:21
the self- similarity of the pattern compared to the prior wave 1 and two move gave me the confidence to go on
8:27
India’s CNBC TV um affiliate TV18 it’s called and called for Sensex 100,000
8:33
within 15 years and um and that’s you know been pretty much what has happened again all the squiggles along the way I
8:40
I can’t say that I anticipated all of those um but I’ve been bullish the whole way and
8:47
um you can see that in uh in 2024 we came as high as 86,000 on the Sensex and
8:54
it has um uh you know you might say okay Mark you didn’t hit your 100,000 target
8:59
within 15 years I’d say yeah but you know give me some credit that was pretty good uh considering the bearishness at
9:05
the time back in 2008 and early 2009 a quick question about the Elliot wave um template how does it different differ
9:12
than WD GAN and what’s employed there because that’s a cycles approach too that looks at human psychology are there
9:18
some key differentiators with this template Um I’m not that familiar with GAN’s work so unfortunately from a
9:25
technical perspective I can’t answer it But we do know that there are various approaches and what they all have in
9:32
common is human behavior You know it’s mass psychology that is creating this Um and and what’s extraordinary is that you
9:38
know as Gan was showing these things happened over over very long periods And as uh we also as I’m showing here you
9:45
know these these patterns play out over very long periods And the question is you know why uh do those things that’s
9:51
an that’s a question we can’t actually answer yet It’s still in the realm of of the unknown There’s you know why do
9:58
human beings um you know their their trading impulses why do they um occur
10:04
you know decades after a pattern began such as here in the Sensex or and I’m sure Gan was working with with multi
10:11
multi-deade uh patterns as well Um and and um yeah it’s it’s it has that at it
10:17
at its similarity the the mass psychology as being the cause of all of these patterns Um but I’m sorry I can’t
10:23
answer uh you know regarding GAN in particular Thank you Yeah Okay Um so
10:29
yeah I think that you know this pattern will continue to play out Um we’ll probably get to around the 100,000 level
10:34
sometime in the future over the next few years It’s taking a little bit longer than I expected but in general this is a
10:41
good example of how you can use these fractal relationships right you know here we we’re looking at wave 1 and two
10:46
and now wave 1 and two and explosive move to the upside in the third wave This is the power of Elliot wave
10:52
analysis and I think one of the the best examples um you know out there at least in in my collection right this pattern
10:59
is called an expanded flat It’s a three-wave decline labeled ABC where wave B rises to uh a new high above the
11:05
start of wave A until it finally gets you know crashes down in wave C And for the technicians in the audience wave A
11:12
needs to be uh three waves Wave B three waves and wave C needs to be five waves
11:17
uh five wave uh in this case five waves down 1 2 3 4 5 And now let’s apply that
Commodities
11:22
to uh commodities Here is on the top the Bloomberg commodity index Um and uh
11:28
actually before we do the actual application of the analysis let me give you some background to my thesis here
11:34
again Back in in early 2020 February 2020 during the Corona virus crash You
11:40
remember that one um that uh I I was looking at this pattern that I’m about
11:45
to explain the expanded flat correction in the in the Bloomberg commodity index And um using that I was able to uh
11:52
identify that the index is likely to continue falling to the 60 to 64 range And the actual low which occurred a few
11:59
months later was at 5887 Again you know it’s not not exact not pinpoint accuracy
12:04
but um this analysis and this methodology Elliot waves gives you the ability to target within a general range
12:11
sometimes um uh you know and even a tradable range um to to identify
12:16
opportunities and um you know we continued falling right here I waited a few months or several months uh but by
12:23
September you know the the target was reached I said target reach bare market over and since then you can see that
12:30
we’ve had um you know a great move up in commodities Let me also point out that the the sideways correction in the
12:36
Bloomberg commodity index um lasted 40 years and during that entire period you
12:41
had US 10-year bond yields also declining in a disinflationary trend But toward the end of that here in September
12:48
at the same time that I’m saying that the bare market is that in the in the commodity index is over I’m also saying
12:54
forecasting enormous upside for commodities price inflation and interest rates in coming decades Why because you
13:01
can see over time that these two markets two asset classes have trended together with each other And um you know so I
13:08
figured okay we’re going to have a bull market in interest rates as well Now let’s go to the analysis Why was I so
13:14
bullish back in 2020 why did I believe that the commodity bare market had ended
13:19
and that’s shown right here You can see the um you know that that uh the Bloomberg commodity index from 1962
13:27
traced out a fivewave advance right to the 1980 high which I believe to be uh
13:32
in this case Roman numeral wave 1 uh up of a much larger pattern Right roman numeral wave 2 was the expanded flat
13:40
correction Wave A down is three waves Wave B up is three waves and wave C down right is 1 2 3 four five waves down to
13:48
complete um you know this Roman numeral wave two which we call cycle degree and
13:54
uh again you know during this entire period uh US 10-year bond yield had had
13:59
declined to the 2020 low but um and and over you know I if you have if you’re
14:05
forecasting a large third wave like I am here this Roman numeral wave three up which I think has already begun and is
14:11
in its early stages is you’re probably going to get um a very large uh move up in interest rates as well And and again
14:18
the 70s the 1970s the period of the 1960s and 1970s shows that that wasn’t
14:23
you know these two asset classes did not move in lock step with each other right but by the end of the period you say
14:29
okay yeah there must have been some relationship you know that it’s it’s kind of obvious um and it’s interesting
14:35
that the commodity bull market here this wave B advance did not result in a corresponding move up in interest rates
14:42
but I think that’s because the entire correction um needed to end first and and um so anyway all of that evidence uh
14:50
points to a a super cycle advance in commodities and interest rates and now let’s get to another feature of this
14:56
again we were talking about the the Sensex fractal right in Indian stocks how the larger degree second wave was
15:03
similar in form to there it is the smaller degree right this previous second wave right here we’ve got an ABC
15:09
correction that is basically similar in form to this larger second wave and this is just like the the India fractal gave
15:16
me confidence evidence to be very very bullish about a third wave going forward This is the same pattern playing out
15:23
here in the commodity index And what it implies is a massive third wave advance that’s going to last decades And here’s
15:29
the evidence for that You can see basically in blue on the left you can see wave two uh is a fractal iteration a
15:37
copy of wave two of one down here That’s the language we use at EWI But look at
15:42
this UR here right um this is the approximate juncture that you’re at If this is the wave two here and this is
15:49
the wave two here well we have at this 100 level on the index we’re approximately down here the equivalent
15:55
level in this wave three advance this large wave three advance And it took 5 years to get from the 2020 low to where
16:02
we are now right and if that five years is is what this took you know to get to
16:08
this comparable location um on within this wave three well then how many years is it going to take to get all the way
16:16
to the end of wave three if this is the comparable wave three over there right you’ve got an eight-fold multiple Let’s
16:22
I mean 5 years here Um it was it took it took you know 40 years to complete what
16:28
took 5 years over here That’s an eight-fold multiple there I wouldn’t be surprised if we also have another you
16:34
know eight or or several fold multiple in order to get and that that implies several times the five years that we’ve
16:40
done So that’s why I’m saying that we’ve got a a a bull markets uh in commodities
16:46
and probably interest rates that’s going to last at least a few decades And Mark just to just to point out for listeners
16:51
there are um those that expect stagflation and and inflation of the 70s and that’ll be positive for gold and
16:59
commodities And I know that some of them expect that you know a three four maybe
17:04
fiveyear move but using this template which you’re not factoring in macro analysis necessarily or the actions of
17:11
governments You’re just looking at past behavior as indicated by the charts and then overlaying that and deducing this
17:19
multi-deade gold and commodities run Right That’s correct That’s completely correct And we at Elliot Wave
17:25
International we we don’t base our forecasts on any political considerations any fundamental
17:31
considerations for that matter because we believe that the mass psychology itself is creating these patterns and
17:38
it’s going to play out regardless of who’s in power For example at the head of the United States uh you know in at
17:44
the in the presidency it these patterns would play out if if Camela Harris had won the 2024 US presidential election
17:52
It’s it’s not because of the tariffs Um you know it’s it’s just simply I mean
17:58
look I mean the the the fractal similarity for me and again there’s a lot of people who would say well you’re
18:04
seeing what you want to see in the charts and I will say yeah it worked in India and it’s going to work again It
18:10
has been working already Um this is really powerful stuff and it’s really convincing as far as I’m concerned but
18:17
you know I guess so you’re saying it’s predictive not just explanatory It’s you can’t just retroact retroactively look
18:24
back and see it You’re saying well if you can see the pattern emerging then it
18:30
becomes predictive of what we can expect That’s correct And and this at a
18:35
philosophical level I’m sure this is going to challenge a lot of people Um because what it means is that these that
18:42
these historical trends because frankly I mean you you have a a massive bull
18:47
market in commodities right it’s going to it’s going to have implications for society right and so you so and this is
18:54
what we believe at Elliot Wave International We’re actually forecasting dire times ahead you know and and that
19:01
is something that you need to prepare for And you can do that of course by investing in in things that are going to
19:06
benefit from that such as gold for example um or commodities or emerging markets Um but but again yeah it is
19:14
difficult from a philos for many people from a philosophical perspective to say that you know it doesn’t matter the
19:21
policies of the of the governments of the future are impotent right they’re
19:26
they’re they were unable to um stop this trend from occurring this expansion in
19:32
commodities um but you know that it’s it’s uh I don’t know I mean I’m
19:39
comfortable with that because I I think that I believe in cycles and I believe that history repeats Um have you read
19:46
the book Turning with Neil House i’ve heard about it Have not read it myself though because if you want to Yeah
19:53
please do tell I’m not an expert on it so I don’t want to misrepresent his view but it’s again it uses human psychology
20:00
patterns of behavior and there’s cycles of unrest as it relates to governments
20:06
and that impacts the economies of the world and pricing and so forth But when
20:11
you say you you forecast dire times ahead are you seeing that because you can see price inflation you can see
20:18
commodity inflation so you know there’s going to be cha you can deduce there’s going to be chaos in the world when you
20:24
have those things on steroids Yes exactly And and if you get the financial
20:31
environment correct in your forecast you’ve basically got the social forecast correct as well And uh you know there’s
20:38
we’ve actually got a long history I mean um Elliot Wave International’s uh founder and president Robert Prector in
20:45
the late 1970s was al you know basically alone on Wall Street in forecasting you
20:50
know the greatest boom that the United States has ever experienced Everybody remembers uh Business Week magazine’s uh
20:57
famous cover in 1979 the end of equities right that was the environment of the time And yet uh you can even alone you
21:05
can by yourself working alone you can come to these conclusions and say “Yeah there’s going to be great times ahead
21:10
There’s going to be a a golden age ahead.” But unfortunately at this period of history precisely at the end of the
21:17
golden age of the fa past 15 years that we have experienced in the United States
21:22
in infoch stocks it’s actually appropriate to begin to forecast a dark
21:29
age and a lot of people are probably uncomfortable with that Um but I think
21:34
that that is the great insight that Elliot Ralph Nelson Elliott uh allowed
21:39
through his discovery of Elliot waves Interesting All right You want to progress with your analysis here and now
21:46
you got us hooked Okay All right So the dire times ahead with commodities rising and um right let’s now talk about gold
Gold
21:53
Uh this was a chart I published on November 4th last year Uh sorry not last year 2022 uh more than about two and a
22:00
half years ago And it’s another example again another example of how to use Elliot waves This is the same expanded
22:07
flat pattern that we were talking about earlier Um I was saying gold to end
22:12
correction and uh one another additional piece p piece of evidence to support that that I had was that uh wave C as it
22:19
sometimes does approximately equal or would approximately equal wave A uh in
22:24
this case on a daily closing basis in points Right so you got a wave A down and up to the wave B high And now this
22:31
spike that intraday spike I forget what it was regarding but um it ended the day here that’s the closing point is for
22:37
your technicians is um often a point at which you want to begin you know your your um you know calculating your
22:44
relationship So from that point down to this blue line is where wave C would have equal wave A And um so I’m here you
22:51
know all of this evidence this expanded flat correction the relationship between wave C and wave A was telling me that
22:57
gold was about to end the correction And let’s look at uh the results since then You know gold has since risen 97% This
23:05
morning it’s uh again popping Uh and uh um now I think a lot of your listeners
23:10
are probably curious as to what you know the technical perspective is on gold at present And I have to admit we have seen
23:17
over the past um several months a um momentum divergence On the bottom here
23:22
we’ve got the RSI or relative strength uh indicator and uh it is failing to
23:28
keep keep pace with price In other words the gold price has risen above its 2024
23:34
high and whereas the indicator the momentum indicator has not And um we and
23:40
and as we saw back here this can be an indication of a turn You can see in early uh 2023 we saw the same thing the
23:48
uh momentum failed to keep pace with the price as gold continued rising and that preceded this six-month correction or so
23:55
So I would not be surprised to see that happen again However this is where it starts to get muddy Many of these um uh
24:03
momentum divergences often fail and that may be what’s happening now this move
24:08
that we’ve seen particularly in the past two weeks may be a gamecher and if we continue to
24:14
advance without seeing a significant correction then that’s probably an indication that this momentum divergence
24:21
is going to fail and um in fact that scenario would be very much in line with
24:27
the longerterm view which is the thing I’d really like to focus on in my presentation today I really don’t care
24:32
if if gold falls by 20% it doesn’t matter to me because from the long-term perspect perspective This is what’s what
24:39
I believe is actually going on And uh here this is um the long-term multi-deade uh pattern in silver and
24:47
gold And from the 1950s they both traced out to the 1980 high a uh a wave 1
24:53
advance followed by a wave two decline into the ’90s And since then we’ve been tracing out another series of of wave 1
25:00
and wave two advances right here What we call a a a series of ones and twos that
25:06
tends to lead toward an explosive move to the upside as I think may be occurring here And we may be right in in
25:12
the early stages of it And um that’s uh from an Elliot wave perspective this pattern is called a um a third of a
25:20
third of a third a third of a third wave So a third wave extension a third wave extension In the middle here you can see
25:26
this this uh basic fivewave pattern right 1 2 3 4 5 that is the third wave
25:32
of this larger pattern from back here 1 2 3 4 and five which is the the the
25:40
middle of this brack this uh not bracketed but circled uh pattern wave 1 2 3 4 5 so if I’m correct gold is
25:48
exactly um in that approaching the middle of that location here you have um
25:54
you all of the dates that we know and love the 1980 high the 1999 low 2011 2015 2020 2022 and we’re about to
26:02
explode to the upside um in this third of a third of a third wave And uh again
26:08
it’s this is a great time to to be analyzing gold a great time to be invested in gold and um it’s just
26:15
remarkable Now that doesn’t mean that over the next several decades that we’re not going to pull back right we over we
26:20
know that over uh you know it’s nearly a lifetime that this uh super cycle advance has been going but um you know
26:29
there were there are multiple pullbacks along the way and there will be right in the future but right now it’s pretty much smooth sailing until we get to the
26:36
end of this wave three which uh could be several years in the future
Miners
26:41
So uh another piece of evidence um that I’d like uh to present to to support that argument is right here in this uh
26:48
third pattern that I’d like you to understand It’s called a contracting triangle Prices contract until become
26:54
narrower and narrower until they finally break out to the upside And I think that that uh this pattern is playing out in
27:00
uh the in the minor Uh here we have GDX on top the Van Vectors gold miner ETF
27:05
and on the bottom uh an index of or an ETF of of silver miners the global X silver ETF SIL and both of them traced
27:14
out this contracting triangle pattern um that in recent years ended and is now
27:20
both of them are advancing again you know the gold miners leading the silver miners as they do um to the upside and
27:26
it’s it’s a powerful move that is probably um unfolding at present in this third this third wave and and the third
27:33
waves in a fivewave sequence sequence tend to be the most powerful of the bunch So this if as long as as prices do
27:40
not uh I again I I I really think that that gold is is extending higher and it’s going to ignore that that momentum
27:48
divergence and I think that this pattern is is uh supporting that because the miners there’s there are other ways to
27:54
interpret um this sideways pattern that it’s done over the past you know couple decades but um I think the best one at
28:01
this point is a third wave advance that’s going to basically lead um eventually that this this impulse
28:07
impulsive or fiveway pattern will eventually lead to new all-time highs uh as part of my my bullish thesis for gold
28:13
overall So um so that’s our discussion of the miners Um unless you have any other uh discussion or questions about
28:21
gold or or um miners in particular I’d like to talk about the second half or rather the first half of my thesis which
28:27
is the end of the um infoch era I got one question on gold and commodities Do you believe that gold for it to be a
28:34
strong commodity bull market this might be a fundamental question that you might say Bill I’m not looking at fundamentals
28:39
but do you believe that gold has to lead strongly lead the whole commodity
28:45
complex for there to be a commodity run it’s not that I believe that it’s
28:51
necessary I believe that the fact that gold is leading the commodity sector is inflationary and and so and you see this
28:59
upcoming breakout in both charts in gold and commodities Well okay Commodities as you saw earlier
29:06
uh the the Bloomberg Commodity Index or any you can look at any ETF such as DBC
29:11
that’s the one I usually go to um it they they have they are declining right
29:16
at present and they may actually continue to decline but these this is mainly being um brought down by energy
29:22
for example uh which has been very weak oil um I wouldn’t be surprised to see uh the comm commodity these these broad
29:29
commodity indexes continue to decline for you know several more months they
29:34
may bottom soon they may actually have bottomed already um I’m not quite sure about that yet but the bigger picture is
29:40
is not so much what happens in the short term to commodities but rather the long-term structure which I showed you
29:46
And you know if you take a chart of gold and say the Bloomberg commodity index
29:52
they’re not going to necessarily um eb and flow with each other right you know there’s some will go up one will go
29:58
up while the other goes down But over the long term and this is what we’re concerned with here um you will look
30:04
back you know decades from now and say “Yeah that was a commodity bull market and gold was leading it the entire
30:10
time.” uh or at least you know certainly in the beginning of beginning part of it So um no it’s not a requirement um and
30:17
neither does um you know the fact that the that commodities and and oil in
30:23
particular energy have been declining recently that does not at all negate my long-term thesis In fact it it simply
30:29
supports um the wave 2 pullback in the in the Bloomberg commodity index But
30:34
those long-term patterns in for example the Bloomberg commodity index can be different from the long-term patterns in
30:41
gold But what’s happening at this period of history is that they’re about to align with each other I think in other
30:47
words in this strong um bull market which I foresee over the next uh several several years if not decade Mark one
30:54
more question before uh you move on with the presentation So we’re an analyzing
31:00
and identifying that a bottom has occurred and you expect a nice run How
31:05
do you identify tops do you just invert this paradigm to identify identify
31:10
cyclical tops exactly And and uh so you like for example I will be looking for a
31:17
top in gold when this five developing fivewave pattern that we see here on the screen when it completes So right now
31:24
we’re in the middle of it right we’ve we’ve been advancing you know for uh what a few years now And you can expect
31:30
that we’re only in the middle of it In fact probably not even the middle of the middle the exact middle which means that
31:35
if gold has been advancing for a few years already this intermediate term trend will probably continue to advance
31:43
for a few more years Um because we we’re not even in in the midpoint of it yet
31:48
And so when we get to that um wave five I’ll give you a hint uh typically does
31:54
show as and that is my concern if you know if we can go back for example to um the near-term chart right my concern
32:00
about um gold in the near term is potentially that we’ve had for example a 1 2 3 4 five wave advance and that we’re
32:09
coming to the end of that because sometimes uh fifth waves do end on momentum divergences and that’s what
32:16
we’re looking at here But I’m not even going to label that right now because I’m not even often these m momentum
32:22
divergences fail and they just continue going in which case we’ve got potentially a third of a third of a
32:28
third wave which is is the most powerful um pattern that we’ve got in our book
32:34
and that that I believe that’s what’s going on here But um but but yes it you
32:40
know uh and especially when combined with the short-term view of looking at these I mean why would gold be topping
32:48
when GDX and SIL are about to explode to the upside in a third wave it just
32:54
doesn’t make any sense So the better interpretation is probably that gold is also exploding in a third of a third
33:00
wave continuing to lead the miners higher And eventually that may swap We
33:06
may see for example the miners begin to outperform the metals and that would be another probably a bad sign you know uh
33:13
over the longer term but we don’t see that yet and I think in the short term as a mining speculator in the short term
33:19
you want to see the miners outperform the metal because that’s indicative uh usually that the metal is going to
33:25
follow the metal price but you’re saying in the long run that’s a bad thing in the long run right I mean I mean because
33:31
we also know that that um you know people can get overly optimistic IC about the miners right and and when that
33:38
happens when they’re really outperforming for an extent and gold is just not following you know uh then
33:44
that’s where that would be an indication I think that that um because what we’re seeing and what we’re seeing here is the
33:50
opposite right the miners have been underperforming Maybe not in the the near term but um you know in the past
33:55
few years the miners have definitely been underperforming And I think that’s a reflection um of the fact that people
34:02
just are not aware of how big this bull market is in gold They’re they’re not willing to bid those those minor miners
34:09
up because they don’t know um what’s going to happen in the future So again we’re explaining this from the template
34:14
of human psychology as represented in charts which are indicative of past
34:20
human psychology right or or and and present Yeah And present Yeah But yeah I
34:27
mean that’s it’s again people are are uncomfortable with patterns in human behavior because it takes away the um uh
34:34
the the the agency you know the ability to to have control over your life But
34:40
the great thing is if you understand the patterns then you can actually take advantage of them And and that’s what uh
34:46
the promise of Elliot waves and and I think that we’re seeing it right here um you know in in both gold and and the
34:52
miners I think there’s a great opportunity immediately ahead Thank you for those explanations
34:58
Okay So um yeah So I’d like to then uh continue on with the first part I think
Bitcoin & Tech stocks
35:04
you know I think a lot of your uh viewers will be interested in what’s going to happen to Bitcoin and the
35:09
NASDAQ 100 For the past 15 years just to you know throw in a gold connection I
35:15
think a lot of people have been wondering what is the relationship between Bitcoin and gold right you know
35:21
they they on the surface they appear to be an alternative currency something outside the system um from me I’ve come
35:28
to the conclusion that they are simply the leaders of their asset classes by which I mean tangible and intangible so
35:36
bitcoin has been the leader for the past 15 years of the infoch sector um of digital assets and
35:42
currencies and uh gold you know as we’ve seen in recent years certainly uh is the
35:48
leader of the tangible assets of the commod commodities right and and um if you treat them as such and we now have
35:54
what I’m calling here approaching the end of the intangible assets era right bitcoin has basically eb and
36:01
flowed with the NASDAQ 100 which actually has been tracing out uh since the year 2002 a fivewave advance and
36:09
here you can see a long and strong third wave as as third waves tend to be it also you know the third wave subdivided
36:14
into five waves itself And we’ve since first seen um a sell-off right and the
36:21
question is well is the NASDAQ 100 done yet um I’m I’m not uh sure about that
36:27
yet Um because one of the reasons why I’m not sure that the NASDAQ 100 is done
36:32
it could easily you know continue to unfold in this uh fivewave developing fivewave pattern is because Bitcoin has
36:39
yet to fall But Bitcoin is on the ropes as we see This is the lower trend channel line from an Elliot perspective
36:45
Elliot wave perspective And if we do fall below 75,000 on Bitcoin and we stay
36:51
down below that level I think that would be another this this would be the second domino to fall so to speak And um we
36:57
would we’d have more evidence that um the intangible assets infoch sector is
37:03
pretty much at the end of its rope So you you you link Bitcoin to the infoch sector You don’t link it at all then to
37:10
faith in government or desire to protect personal privacy uh or you know lack of
37:16
faith in sovereign currencies I think I think prices rise because they rise In other words people
37:23
get bullish about an asset class simply because the price is rising They’ll do that to anything They’ll do that to
37:29
flowers as we know right you know from the tulip bulb experience Um and so I’m
37:35
not I’m not I’m I’m hope this you know doesn’t step on anyone’s toes but but personally I think that there is no
37:41
value to Bitcoin I think there’s great value in blockchain but Bitcoin itself doesn’t have much value certainly as a
37:47
store of value Um and and uh you know it’s a very expensive mechanism as a
37:53
transaction mechanism So I I think that the fact that that Bitcoin traces out
38:00
such a beautiful fivewave pattern from an Elliot wave for me and from for us I can speak for the company This actually
38:07
justifies our our view that human psychology is the main driver of of um
38:14
of price trends in in financial markets This asset class this Bitcoin has
38:20
absolutely no fundamentals to speak of and yet it reflects it has ebbed and flowed in Elliot wave patterns
38:26
beautifully and and it’s actually we may actually be looking at uh some you know a point that we’re very close to the end
38:33
of this entire um fivewave pattern as it is in in the NASDAQ 100 So um yeah I
38:40
mean there maybe there is an argument to be made that that
38:46
um there’s a that that digital assets that that cryptocurrencies can play a
38:51
role in the future But from our perspective we’re just concerned with what is the fiveway pattern what does
38:57
that mean for the future when this five-way pattern is done as it may already be although you know until it
39:03
breaks that uptrend line I’m I’m pretty much bullish Um and yeah I’m assuming it’s going to continue uh higher as may
39:10
you know the NASDAQ 100 Um once that pattern ends you’re going to see the largest correction in Bitcoin that it
39:17
has experienced much like you’re going to see the largest correction in the NASDAQ 100 that it has experienced over
39:23
the past you know uh few decades from that 2002 low Mark for those that point
39:30
out Bitcoin as digital gold you’re essentially saying we’re going to see a stark divergence between the gold price
39:37
and where the Bitcoin price goes Exactly I am drawing a a clear distinction between Bitcoin as the leader of the
39:44
intangible asset sector and gold as the leader of the tangible asset sector And
39:49
we are going to my thesis is that we’re transferring or we’re we’re transitioning between the two eras
39:55
between the the intangible assets era which has been the dominant investment
40:01
um venue you know for the past 15 years and uh the the uh tangible assets which
40:07
are being led by gold I I am completely in the gold camp on that and I personally am am not I don’t necessarily
40:14
care about any of these assets I don’t I’m not a emotionally attached to them All I am is a technical analyst looking
40:20
at long-term patterns and coming to macroeconomic conclusions based on those
40:25
patterns Um I’m not a lover of Bitcoin and neither am I a lover of gold necessarily but I recognize these trends
40:32
and I’m saying that Bitcoin that that gold has a far brighter future than Bitcoin over the next decade Thank you
40:39
for that explanation Okay And uh so that’s that’s the basic thesis there on on infoch assets Um
Emerging markets
40:47
let’s go back to the the second part of the thesis and that is the rise of emerging markets if we can for a minute
40:52
Here is the long-term chart showing the emer MSCI emerging markets index uh and the Bloomberg commodity index on the
40:58
bottom You can see that that um you know obviously emerging emerging market stocks have outperformed commodities by
41:05
far over the decades but um the important point here is that they tend to eb and flow together these two assets
41:12
over time And uh so if we’re going to be forecasting a very large wave three advance you know to continue in the
41:19
future over over decades um then I think that uh the emerging markets uh stocks
41:24
are also going to uh go along for that ride And actually here uh with the the uh
41:31
Msei emerging markets index is that a fundamental is that a fundamental argument you just made if I see are you
41:37
saying I see in the the Bloomberg commodity index chart a rise therefore
41:42
the the the related move will be in the emerging markets I guess are you making
41:48
a fundamental argument from looking at a chart ah that’s you caught me there Okay
41:53
Very good And that’s I’m glad you did Um I mean yes the truth is that these emerging markets are you know they’re
42:00
primarily based around exports of of uh of of raw materials and and that’s what
42:05
the Bloomberg commodity index represents So I but it’s not um it’s not that one is going to cause the other you know to
42:13
to go up All I just think that you know that that’s their business I mean their their businesses are are based on raw
42:19
materials and so but but in terms of timing the market um I’m not saying that any particular move at any particular I
42:25
mean you can see for example just in the past few years commodities have been declining while um emerging markets have
42:32
been rising right along this lower trend trend channel line So it’s it’s not that they are it’s a onetoone relationship
42:39
You can’t you can’t time emerging markets based on you know the price of oil or or or even the commodity index
42:47
overall but um over time you know you will see uh that there is a relationship Is that a fundamental relationship a
42:53
fundamental argument you may have me there a little bit but uh I’m not going to give in yet It’s there from a from a
43:00
timing perspective or from a wave pattern perspective I don’t think that there’s a one onetoone relationship It’s
43:06
rather that um you know over time there there does seem to be a relationship Thank you for that explanation
43:13
Okay And uh so uh my bullishness on on emerging markets is not just on an
43:19
absolute basis that emerging markets are going to rise during the commodity bull market but um but also its uh relative
43:26
performance you for example against US assets Here I’ve got the Msei Emerging
43:31
Markets Index divided by the S&P 500 index ratio uh with a historical
43:37
extension provided by the Bank of America Uh you can see that yeah over the past 15 years the S&P 500 has just
43:44
been crushing emerging markets which is why the the ratio the line has been declining But um you can see that over
43:50
the you know over decades there are long periods when emerging markets uh have
43:55
been crushing the S&P 500 So there’s um you know a good precedent for opportunities in emerging markets um
44:02
just in in this uh single ratio chart And to support that argument as to why I
44:07
think you may say “Okay Mark why do you believe that emerging markets are going to outperform?” Now there’s you know
44:14
it’s it’s true that this ratio can continue declining as it did back here in the ’60s to much lower levels But I
USD
44:22
believe I have a means of timing uh this upturn because um the relationship between the the performance of the US
44:29
dollar and outperformance by uh U US stocks in this case the S&P 500 seems to
44:35
be pretty tight We’ve seen three major periods of what has recently re recently
44:40
been called um US asset or US dollar exceptionalism and the past 15 years has
44:46
been a great example of that here the US dollar has been rising and the S&P uh
44:51
has basically been crushing everything else And that was true um back in the late ’90s here and during the uh the
44:58
early 1980s as well as we saw the US dollar index performance uh was actually
45:04
a very good indication of the outperformance by US stocks and US assets overall So the question is now
45:11
you know why then Mark do you believe that um you know that this uh you know
45:16
that the the S&P 500 is going to underperform why is the US the period of
45:22
US asset exceptionalism why is it ending and and that’s because I have a means I believe of timing the end of the US
45:28
dollar index the the advance in the US dollar index And here we have um you can
45:34
see from the uh this is the dollar index on top from the low in 2008 a fivewave
45:39
uh advance advancing pattern that ended in 20122 right you the subwave wave
45:44
three subdivided into five waves itself and we’ve since you know traced out a corrective period uh that I believe is
45:52
either wave 1 or wave A down and wave two or wave B up and um again I was
45:57
introducing my thesis about the the end of the infoch era and the rise of emerging markets at the end of 2024 in
46:05
expectation that we would get a collapse in the US dollar and that was based not only on this pattern here which has
46:10
since um you know uh nicely continued down uh but also on this pattern down
46:16
here in the Deutsche Bank Emerging Markets um foreign exchange dynamically weighted spot index basically an EM
46:22
currency index which is ending a five-wave pattern called um an ending
46:28
diagonal and uh you know I’m sure necessarily if it has ended already I
46:33
believe it has in early 2025 but it could go down a little bit further even Um but regardless the combination of
46:40
these two patterns the end of these fivewave patterns in both of these indexes is pretty bearish for uh the US
46:47
dollar And I think that the many of your viewers probably remember this cover of the of the economist Um they published
46:54
uh this report on America’s economy right they called it the end of envy of the world But they chose as their symbol
47:00
of America’s economy a rocketing role of US dollar notes And I think that’s an
47:05
excellent symbol because as we saw earlier right that the US the outperformance by the US dollar is
47:11
actually a good indication of the outperformance by US assets overall And
47:17
um and therefore I think you know I’m I’m sure a lot of your uh readers would agree that we have to um consider this
47:24
from a contrarian perspective Certainly you know it happened before this wave B high or this wave wave two high and
47:30
before the end of the decline in the um in the EM currency index Um you know we
47:35
have to interpret it from a contrarian index It could Donald Trump would not agree with you on this perspective
47:41
Donald Trump would not agree with me although I’m sure he’s probably open to making you products more competitive by
47:47
seeing the dollar decline I’m simply saying and I was saying this before we knew the results of the election If
47:53
Camela Harris had been elected president we would still see a massive selloff in the US dollar over the next several
47:59
years And I believe that we’re still seeing this decline It has nothing to do with the politics It has to do with the
48:05
pattern But he would he would not want to see emerging markets outperform you know American industry which is what
48:10
he’s trying to deal with right now with his tariff approach And I know we’re talking fundamentals and politics but I’m just kind of pointing out that what
48:17
you’re explaining doesn’t 100% coincide with what the current president of the
48:23
United States uh his uh his hopes for the American economy Hopes for the
48:28
American economy Uh yes uh but and but again this is another reason why I think that the technic or why we as a company
48:35
at leweave international we think that the technical perspective on financial
48:40
markets is far superior to the fundamental one right how many people bought the US dollar after Trump’s
48:46
election right in in November last year you got a and and how many hedge funds
48:52
were buying into US dollar futures thinking that it would continue to rise
48:58
because Because and remember what the narrative was back then This is extraordinary The narrative was that
49:03
tariffs would be bullish for the US dollar And now that Trump is Trump is actually imposing those tariffs the US
49:10
dollar is selling off So where then is the logic was that narrative ever
49:16
correct or rather and this is the alternative view and this is our view there wasn’t any um it’s not it’s not
49:24
that the the US dollar was rising because of the it rose 6% after his election over the next two months It’s
49:30
not that the US dollar was rising because of the tariffs or the the the prospects of the imposition of tariffs
49:36
Nor is it now that the US dollar is selling off because of the tariffs Rather it simply needed to that this US
49:44
dollar index in this case needed to complete that corrective pattern which frankly from this low over here is A B
49:51
and C and that’s what I was expecting at that time That’s again I’m not sure if it’s if it’s if this is wave one down
49:58
and then wave two up or wave A b and we’re now heading in wave C down for a while Not sure about that yet But the
50:04
point is on that near-term I had an ABC advance that was completing and I knew it and and so it was actually hilarious
50:13
to watch the news This is what what journalists do They rationalize the price index by coming up with some
50:20
fundamental uh you know justification for it And they say okay well what you know why why
50:26
is the dollar rising after Trump’s election oh it must be because of Trump’s policies right what’s he going to do oh yeah he’s going to impose
50:32
tariffs Oh well then tariffs must be bullish for the dollar That’s why the dollar is rising That’s what these
50:38
journalists are doing They’re coming up with rationalizations based on the price action But they they actually there is
50:46
the the primary driver of these fun these financial market trends are not the fundamentals They are simply the
50:53
patterns themselves and the narratives change based on the price action And we and and
50:59
the past few months is a perfect example of that So you don’t believe narrative drives price You you believe price
51:05
drives narrative Price drives narrative That’s correct Yep Yep That’s correct
51:11
And and so for example and and the past several months are a great example Again the narrative was that the tariffs are
51:16
going to be bullish and that’s why the dollar is rising Now that the the tariffs are actually being imposed the
51:22
dollar is selling off It never the neither of these narratives was correct to begin with The only thing that was
51:28
correct and the only logic in this entire you know the past several months has been the price pattern itself And
51:34
that’s why we at Ellie Wave International trust the patterns not the
51:39
news The news if anything is it you know it will sometimes news does actually
51:46
reflect in other words you you can have major uh political announcements made at peaks for example right you know that’s
51:53
a sentiment indicator if if nothing at best um but but really you need to watch
51:59
the price action watch the patterns rather than what you believe is going to happen um and and that’s at a longer
52:05
term perspective you are completely correct I am forecasting a lost decade possibly two for the United States based
52:13
on that long-term pattern that you saw in the NASDAQ 100 index I’m also forecasting a loss decade for Bitcoin
52:19
and cryptocurrencies This is a massive forecast but I’m doing it based on the patterns alone I have no idea what the
52:26
fundamentals what what fundamentals will fall in line to actually um you know
52:31
execute that pattern or or it’s not the pattern It’s not the fundamentals that are causing the the pattern It’s rather
52:37
the fundamentals will eventually reflect the pattern because as we know fundamentals lag um price moves by
52:44
several months but we believe that’s because the psychology actually changes So if Bitcoin is going to collapse you
52:50
will see people become bearish on Bitcoin They’ll start selling and it’s it’s and that will build on itself and
52:57
it’s just all part of the psychology is part of the pattern The psych psychology is driving the pattern Uh I know that
53:03
that sounds sounds complicated and and I’m sure there’s uh I hope you’re going to get a lot of of uh chat You know I
53:10
would just point out one thing for listeners because I know like people get emotionally attached to their
53:15
investments They get emotionally attached to their thesis and what you’re saying which I agree with is that don’t
53:22
get emotionally attached whatsoever Look at the facts You you’re obviously you’re applying a paradigm right and to be
53:29
intellectually honest you have to say there are assumptions built in to my paradigm However I think this paradigm
53:35
is the most accurate in terms of my you know looking at history and how I’ve applied this paradigm I think it’s the
53:41
best thing I can use to and correct me if I’m wrong but I’m articulating what I’m hearing from you This paradigm helps
53:48
me see what’s coming the best Okay but there are assumptions that any paradigm any thesis is going to have assumptions
53:54
built into it But if you get upset or offended because an analyst shares an opinion you better check yourself before
54:01
you wreck yourself to quote a famous philosopher because you’re you’re not going to be making the right right
54:07
decisions cuz it’s not driven by intellect It’s driven by emotions That’s correct Completely correct I I have
54:13
chosen a methodology It’s called Elliot wave analysis and it’s purely technical I it it incorporates no fundament
54:21
fundamental assumptions no political assumptions no policy assumptions This is completely independent of any of that
54:28
And from that I’m concluding that we’re heading into a lost decade in the United States
54:34
Doesn’t matter who’s president Doesn’t matter what his or her policies are And that’s the beauty of this thing
54:40
You’re completely independent of all of that outside influence I would call it noise Mark But you would say like
54:46
obviously I’m American right um the majority of my family lives in America So like I don’t want to hear America
54:53
might not prosper as much in the next whatever you said up could be multiple
54:58
decades right however would you at the same time be able to see um micro or
55:04
smaller profit opportunities within a lost decade of America within America or
55:10
do you primarily look to the emerging markets well the bare market ahead is going to
55:15
have bare market rallies and they’re going to be huge and they’re going to be fierce So yeah within those bare market
55:20
rallies you will have subsectors longside opportunities You can you if you really want to take a risk you can
55:27
try shortsighting shortside opportunities but um I’m sorry I didn’t hear you again like uh subsectors are
55:33
there like AI art artificial intelligence just to just to throw one out there like even when you see the
55:39
macro trend overall have you identified and you
55:44
don’t have to go too far into it if you don’t want to have you identified maybe some subsectors that may be primed from
55:50
the Elliot wave perspective bullishly even if overall American industry you’re
55:56
referencing it as a lost decade Um oh well picking the winners
56:02
especially during a bare market is extremely difficult And I I would also say that it’s way too early because I
56:08
don’t even have confirmation that the NASDAQ 100 has ended its fivewave advance from
56:13
2002 Once we have that and I would say that we need the second domino Bitcoin to fall before I’m confident that we’ve
56:21
got a bare market immediately ahead Um right now I’d actually be interested in
56:27
looking at um some leading positions in the infoch
56:32
sector For example there’s still some companies out there Um you I’m looking you know I can give you some individual
56:38
names that that are on the list Look at Palunteer Crowdstrike You know some of
56:44
these companies could actually ride another wave up over the next several months even over the next year But that
56:50
that would require a a pretty solid uh a continuation of the bull market in in
56:56
the NASDAQ 100 or at least um a good bare market rally in the near term Um
57:02
Bitcoin I’m still bullish on Bitcoin right now because it hasn’t broken that downtrend line Uh but as and as far as
57:10
um you know during the bare market one of the reasons why I’m pushing emerging
57:16
markets so heavily is because I think they are going to be the key to outperformance during the commodity bull
57:23
market And so if you’re looking for opportunities fine Maybe um you know
57:30
maybe you don’t have to look at China for example but uh you can look at at plenty of other emerging markets in
57:37
Latin America for example Um that can be much more politically palatable to many
57:42
people uh for for opportunities to to survive and thrive during the bare
57:48
market in US assets Thank you for engaging that tangental question I appreciate that
57:55
Yeah No no problem I think actually it’s a great question Um but yeah actually if I can play on a little bit more Yeah
58:03
there are people who do get attached and I’m sure that there I’m I’m going to get a lot of hateful comments you know we’re
58:09
talking about the coming lost decade in the United States especially since many people Bitcoin has no fundamentals if I
58:16
recall what you said too right correct Correct It’s it has zero I know people friends that would vehemently disagree
58:22
with you disagree with that Of course Yeah Um I would say it’s got uh less
58:27
than tulips did you know back in the early 1700s Um
58:33
yeah So you know that’s and but anyway it doesn’t matter actually what I think about fundamentals because again I’m a
58:40
technical analyst I’m purely focused on the price action And you know you can take all your fundamentals with Bitcoin
58:46
but if we break below 7500 75,000 I’ve got to put my chips on the
58:53
on the coming bare market you know even though I’m I’m bullish at in the near term on on Bitcoin right now So again I
58:59
I again I just think that you’re so much better off treating financial markets and viewing them from a purely technical
59:06
perspective than you are you know investing yourself emotionally in the fundamentals or the the narrative
59:12
Because as as we’ve seen just with the US dollar alone in the past few months that narrative didn’t play out It’s the
59:20
narrative was worthless Those those hedge funds who were piling into the US dollar just prior you know just earlier
59:26
this year in January or so they’re crying right now What what use was was
59:32
it to be wedded to that narrative none It it was defeist if anything So it’s
59:37
far better to to uh you know use the technical perspective Thank you for that clarity Uh shall we move on with the
59:44
presentation do we have any more slides okay Yeah Uh so right so I I kind of hinted at it before Uh again if if the
59:52
US dollar and the US asset exceptionalism era is ending what then
59:57
might be replacing it what’s going to be the outperformer of the future and I think this is the question we we alluded
1:00:02
to it earlier that’s going to make a lot of people uncomfortable I think that emerging markets overall are are one uh
Yuan
1:00:09
option Um but I think actually China is one to look at um you know as the
1:00:15
potential leader and I I’ll show you why Here we have the Shanghai Composite uh making a a five a contracting triangle
1:00:22
pattern AB CDE It ended it in early 2024 and it’s since been tracing out a series
1:00:28
of first and second waves in what I believe is a new bull market that’s going to new new all-time highs and
1:00:33
beyond in coming years and is supportive of that Again we saw how the US dollar
1:00:39
has been was in a good indication of the strength of the um US stock market and
1:00:45
US assets for the past 15 years Well consider the Chinese yen right if it has traced out as I believe it has wave one
1:00:52
up and wave two down Um again impulses tend to be fairly clean as this is and
1:00:58
corrective waves tend to be choppy which this is This is a component the Chinese yen is a component of the uh Deutsche
1:01:04
Bank uh emerging markets currency index And you can see that it is just like that index ending a corrective pattern
1:01:11
or a a a fiveway pattern here And I think that you know it may continue down a little bit further but basically the
1:01:18
next big move in the UN is going to be to the upside in a in a large third wave
1:01:23
that will last potentially for decades And that will underline the um you know
1:01:29
just like the US dollar advance underlined the or was an indicator of of US asset outperformance I think that
1:01:35
you’ll see the the UN the Chinese currency underline um you know uh
1:01:41
basically Chinese asset outperformance going forward during this wave five advance And uh to make a comparison this
1:01:47
is an analogy I’ve come up with to the Japanese yen during the 1980s right here
1:01:52
The Japanese yen traced out a fivewave decline here and by 1982 um it was on the ropes it seemed just
1:02:00
like the Chinese yen appears to be at present as well But the Japanese yen uh
1:02:06
reversed on a dime in 1982 and it went the oppos opposite direction It soared
1:02:11
again It was the upand cominging manufacturer as China has basically uh you know revealed itself to be in recent
1:02:17
decades and the yen If you had purchased the yen or rather if you had purchased the Japanese stock market in 1982 you
1:02:24
would have absolutely outperformed the rest of the world over the next decade not just because you had the best
1:02:29
performing stock market in nominal terms but but because you had the best performing currency uh at the time and
1:02:35
so your gains in US dollar terms would be compounded And I think a similar
1:02:40
thing may be happening with the Chinese currency at present you’ve got um you know if this reversal does occur and
1:02:46
it’s it’s going to occur in line with the the uh the emerging markets currency index that we looked at we should see
1:02:52
over the next uh certainly 10 years if not next few decades a much stronger uh
1:02:57
UN falling under the four level for um y per dollar in the future and and that
1:03:03
would be a good indication um of the strength of the uh you know Chinese
1:03:08
assets overall and again that probably makes people uncomfortable but look The parallels are there You’ve got the
1:03:13
dominant the world’s dominant manufacturer or at least most innovative manufacturer much you know much like the
1:03:20
Japanese were putting out the the cars that Americans wanted to buy uh throughout the the 70s and and ‘ 80s and
1:03:26
so on The Chinese are are innovative and coming up with uh the automobiles of the future even exceeding Tesla in many
1:03:32
cases certainly in terms of battery technology and and uh but um so that’s
1:03:38
that’s basically the end of my thesis um you know you can take this China uh aspect of it you know with a grain of
1:03:45
salt if you’d like because there’s many opportunities in emerging markets outside of China if you’d like to avoid
1:03:50
it Um but I’m just looking at at uh you know historical trends and certainly patterns and and trying to put two and
1:03:56
two together to come up with a thesis that I think makes sense And uh I I think I’ve got it So So emerging markets
1:04:03
and gold are the place to be Emerging markets and yeah you’re you’re probably fine just with the metals alone Uh but
1:04:09
if you’d like to diversify um well come and check out my my uh publication my
Mark’s newsletter
1:04:15
newsletter We um by the way uh yeah this basically this is the end of my presentation Um you know this is my
1:04:22
newsletter and um the Asian Pacific Financial Forecast where I do discuss a lot of opportunities in emerging markets
1:04:28
in addition to Asia and certainly China Uh but um if you’d like to learn more about Elliot waves and uh our products
1:04:36
you can go to Elliotwave.com you can see there uh forward/ms We’ve got a a special greeting page uh for any of your
1:04:43
listeners from miningtockeducation.com Um if they’d like to come and check it out we can we
1:04:48
can give you uh some free material that they can download uh from our global market perspective which is actually the
1:04:55
parent publication um to to my publication It includes um you know
1:05:00
stocks bonds currencies um and so on uh all asset classes and um uh thank you
1:05:06
very much for your time Bill And and for listeners uh this interview was
1:05:13
not sponsored I have no partner sharing or any business relationship with Elliot
1:05:18
Wave So if you go to that customized link it’s it’s for your own benefit to check it out if you like what you heard
1:05:23
but I have no financial interest either way Uh so uh Mark this has been a great
1:05:29
conversation I’ve really enjoyed engaging your perspective and obviously I’m going to listen to this uh
1:05:36
presentation again and think through some of my own macro thesis that affect my investing So thank you for coming on
1:05:42
the show today Okay Thank you Bill