Social mood dictates where the stock market and the economy heads. When the social mood changes, it first gets recorded in the stock market because it is easy for investors to express their opinion in the market. After that, the mood reflects itself on the economy, in the form of layoffs, hiring, consumers shopping, or borrowing, or paying off debt. Here is Bob Prechter explaining a socionomic view of the markets.
Part 1:
Part 2:
Part 3:
Part 4:
Become a member at Elliottwave International to get access to upto date financial forecasts:
Robert Prechter’s Minyanville Interview about Socionomics and Markets:
Part 1:
Part 2:
We're excited to announce that our friends at Elliott Wave International are offering a free 50-page report from Robert Prechter. Although originally published in 1985, “Popular Culture and the Stock Market” is so timeless and relevant that USA Today covered its insights in a recent November 2009 article.
The report walks you through the ups and downs of the DJIA -- our most sensitive meter of social mood -- and analyzes the trends in popular music and TV shows through periods of positive and negative social mood over the past century. It reveals how social mood as reflected in the stock market actually defines popular culture.
Wall Street legend and best-selling author Robert Prechter says "You can almost hear the Dow going up and down over the airwaves." Watch this 3-minute clip from his documentary History's Hidden Engine to see how social mood governs movements in the stock market and trends in popular culture. Then access his 50-page report "Popular Culture and the Stock Market" FREE.
Mainstream media would like you to believe that the news are driving the markets. They always find a reason to explain why stocks go down or go up. The truth is everyday there are good news and bad news and the media picks the headline to explain the stock market action that has already happened. Sometimes the headline changes upside down during the same day: Here is an example of how news does not drive the stock market, but it is the social mood that ultimately decides how these news are interpreted. According to socionomic theory, news is the result of prevailing social mood. Thus, good news tend to appear at market tops, and bad news appear at market bottoms.
Earnings Do not Drive the Stocks
Similar to news, earnings are a lagging indicator. As social mood improves, people first act in the stock market, drive prices up. After the market moves, effects of positive mood is seen in the rest of the economy. This is why during a recession, the stock market rallies first and the recession is declared over as the rest of the economy improves. Similarly, a bull market tops with good earnings and earnings decline as the stock market declines. Worst earnings appear at market bottoms.
