How to Prepare for the Coming Crash and Preserve Your Wealth
New Edition of Conquer the Crash to Be Released in Late October
October 14, 2009
Bob Prechter first released Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression during a stock-market high in 2002, and it quickly became a New York Times–bestseller. Now he has updated the book with 188 new pages for a second edition, and it looks like it, too, will be published near a stock-market high. John Wiley & Sons plans to publish the new edition in late October. Visit Elliott Wave International for information on how to pre-order the new edition from major online retailers.
As was widely reported in the dark days of late February and early March 2009, Prechter called for the start of the biggest stock market rally since the 2007 high. Since then, the S&P has soared more than 60 percent in just six months to reach his target zone of 1000-1100. This is one reason why he decided to release his second edition now.
The first edition, which was published in early 2002, was "on the mark" with regard to our current economic environment -- so much so that it's uncanny. Prechter’s message has been good for investors who kept their money safe and for speculators who profited from declines. And he still expects a great buying opportunity ahead for those who can keep their money safe until it arrives. Here is a short list of some of the accurate predictions he made in 2002 that have come to fruition:
Credit Deflation
"Usually the culprit behind [simultaneous stock and real estate] declines is a credit deflation. If there were ever a time we were poised for such a decline, it is now." Chapter 16
Bailout Schemes
“If [governments] leap unwisely into bailout schemes, they will risk damaging the integrity of their own debt, triggering a fall in its price. Either way … deflation will put the brakes on their actions.” Chapter 32
Banking and Insurance Stocks
“We will see stocks going down 90 percent and more … [and] bank and insurance company failures….” Chapter 14
Collateralized Securities
"Banks and mortgage companies … have issued $6 trillion worth of [securitized loans]…. In a major economic downturn, this credit structure will implode." Chapter 19
Derivatives
“Leveraged derivatives pose one of the greatest risks to banks….” Chapter 19
Mortgage-Backed Securities
"Major financial institutions actually invest in huge packages of … mortgages, an investment that they and their clients (which may include you) will surely regret…. Chapter 16
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
“Investors in these companies’ stocks and bonds will be just as surprised when [Fannie and Freddie's] stock prices and bond ratings collapse.” Chapter 25
Banks
“Banks are not just lent to the hilt, they’re past it. In a fearful market, liquidity even on these so called ‘securities’ [corporate, municipal, and mortgage-backed bonds] will dry up.”… One expert advises, ‘The larger, more diversified banks at this point are the safer place to be.' That assertion will surely be severely tested….” Chapter 19
Insurance Companies
“The values of insurance company holdings, from stocks to bonds to real estate (and probably including junk bonds as well), will be falling precipitously…. As the values of most investments fall, the value of insurance companies’ portfolios will fall…. When insurance companies implode, they file for bankruptcy…." Chapters 15, 24
Real Estate
"What screams 'bubble' – giant, historic bubble – in real estate today is the system-wide extension of massive amounts of credit to finance property purchases…. [People] have been taking out home equity loans so they can buy stocks and TVs and cars…. This widespread practice is brewing a terrible disaster.” Chapter 16
Rating Services
“Most rating services will not see it coming.” Chapter 25
Political Leaders
“A leader does not control his country’s economy, but the economy mightily controls his image.” Chapter 27
Short-Selling Ban
“In a bear market, bullish investors always come to believe that short sellers are 'driving the market down'…. Sometimes authorities outlaw short selling. In doing so, they remove the one class of investors that must buy.” Chapter 20
Psychological Change
“When the social mood trend changes from optimism to pessimism, creditors, debtors, producers and consumers change their primary orientation from expansion to conservation....” Chapter 9
Confidence
“Confidence has probably reached its limit. A multi-decade deceleration in the U.S. economy … will soon stress debtors’ ability to pay…. Total credit will contract, so bank deposits will contract, so the supply of money will contract….” Chapter 11
Falling Tax Receipts
"Governments … spend and borrow throughout the good times and find themselves strapped in bad times, when tax receipts fall." Chapter 32
"Retirement programs such as Social Security in the U.S. are wealth-transfer schemes, not funded insurance, so they rely upon the government’s tax receipts. Likewise, Medicaid is a federally subsidized state-funded health insurance program, and as such, it relies upon transfers of states’ tax receipts. When people’s earnings collapse in a depression, so does the amount of taxes paid, which forces the value of wealth transfers downward." Chapter 32
"The tax receipts that pay for roads, police and jails, fire departments, trash pickup, emergency (911) monitoring, water systems and so on will fall to such low levels that services will be restricted." Chapter 32
For more information on the new second edition of Conquer the Crash, visit Elliott Wave International. Bob Prechter has added 188 new pages of critical information to his New York Times bestseller.
January 14, 2010 Special Update
Free 13-page Report: Robert Prechter's firm Elliott Wave International has just released its annual "Most Important Report of 2010." Inside, Prechter delivers hard facts, eye-opening charts and straightforward commentary to help you take advantage of the opportunities – and avoid the dangerous pitfalls – that you will face in 2010. You'll get analysis and forecasts you can act on, and you'll learn what the government's unprecedented involvement in the financial markets will mean for your portfolio in 2010 and beyond. Learn more and download your free report now.
Dear Investor,
Please recall with me the prevailing investor sentiment from this time last year …
U.S. stocks had been in strong decline for more than a year. Some of the most celebrated bulls had turned into bears, and the few bears that did exist before the downturn had become even more bearish. The Daily Sentiment Index for the S&P registered an astonishing 3 percent bulls -- virtually no one was betting on the upside -- and the bleakest of forecasts for 2009 called for nothing short of financial apocalypse.
But well-known contrarian analyst Robert Prechter took the opposite side of the trade. Prechter, a long-time bear, emerged as a solitary bullish voice among overwhelming bearishness. After closing out a record short recommendation that gained 800 downside points in the S&P, he issued the following bullish warning to bears:
"The market is compressed, and when it finds a bottom and rallies, it will be sharp and scary for anyone who is short."
In the following days, the mainstream media reported that "perma-bear" Robert Prechter had turned bullish -- the reports were only half true. Prechter had, in fact, turned intermediate-term bullish. In Prechter's eyes, the bear market is far from over, and what he expects to happen after the current rally ends is significantly important to how you position your portfolio now.
Prechter's firm, Elliott Wave International, is now offering for a limited time The Most Important Investment Report You'll Read in 2010. Inside, Prechter reveals his big-picture outlook for U.S. stocks and the U.S. economy. The eye-opening 13-page report, originally published for paying subscribers to his Elliott Wave Theorist, examines the government's unprecedented involvement in the financial markets and private enterprise. It reveals what's already taken place in candid detail then focuses you on what the government's measures will actually do for the U.S. financial markets and economy.
Be assured, this report delivers analysis you will not find on the front page of The New York Times or Wall Street Journal. It delivers independent insights from the man who saw the bear market -- and today's bear market rally -- coming when virtually no one else did.
But hurry! This free 13-page report is available for a limited-time only due to its timely content.
Please learn more about and download the free 13-page Most Important Report for 2010 now.
Bob Prechter's "Conquer The Crash": Eight Chapters For Free
February 11, 2010
By Nico Isaac
When EWI President Robert Prechter sat down to write the first edition of "Conquer The Crash" in 2002, the idea that the United States would enter a period of what news authorities coined "economic Armageddon" several years later was unheard of.
Flashing back, the major blue-chip averages were rebounding off a historic bottom, the notorious dot.com bust was making way for a powerful housing boom, Fannie Mae’s chief executive was named “the most confident CEO in America,” then President George Bush was enjoying a 60%-plus approval rating, Gulf War II hadn’t begun yet, and when it did, a “quick and easy victory” was supposed to follow, and the Federal Reserve was largely credited with slaying the big, bad bear via the sharp blade of monetary policy.
Five years later, the tables turned. The U.S. housing market endured its worst downturn since the Great Depression; Fannie Mae’s CEO was ousted amidst a mortgage crisis of incalculable damage. George W. Bush left the oval office with a record low approval rating of 25%, and the expected “cakewalk” victory in Iraq became a “quagmire” and national dilemma.
Anticipating these and other “shocks” to the global system is the unparalleled achievement of “Conquer The Crash.” Here, the following excerpts from the book put any doubt to rest:
- Housing: “What screams bubble – giant historic bubble – in real estate is the system-wide extension of massive amount of credit.” And “Home equity loans are brewing a terrible disaster.”
- Bonds: “The unprecedented mass of vulnerable bonds extant today is on the verge of a waterfall of downgrading.”
- Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac: “Investors in these companies’ stocks and bonds will be just as surprised when the stock prices and bond ratings collapse.”
- Politics: “Look for nations and states to split and shrink.” And -- “The Middle East should be a complete disaster.”
- Credit Expansion Schemes “have always ended in a bust.” And -- “Like the discomfort of drug addiction withdrawal, the discomfort of credit addiction withdrawal cannot be avoided.”
- Banks: “Banks are not just lent to the hilt, they’re past it. In a fearful market, liquidity even on these so called ‘securities’ [corporate, municipal, and mortgage-backed bonds] will dry up.” (176)
If the tools in Bob Prechter’s analytical toolbox, namely Elliott wave analysis and socionomics (Prechter's new science of social prediction based on the Wave Principle), enabled him to foresee these “sea changes” in the economic, social, and political landscape -- the only question is: What else do the pages of the “Conquer The Crash” reveal?
Well, your opportunity to find out just got a whole lot easier. Right now, you can download the 8-chapter Conquer the Crash Collection, free. It includes:
Chapter 10: Money, Credit And The Federal Reserve Banking System
Chapter 13: Can The Fed Stop Deflation?
Chapter 23: What To do With Your Pension Plan
Chapter 28: How To Identify A Safe Haven
Chapter 29: Calling In Loans & Paying Off Debt
Chapter 30: What You Should Do If You Run A Business
Chapter 32: Should You Rely On The Government To Protect You?
Chapter 33: Short List of Imperative 'Do's' & 'Don'ts"
Visit Elliott Wave International to learn more about the free Conquer the Crash Collection.
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